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It's not just China - Ireland also staring down Trump tariff threat

 

It's not just China - Ireland also staring down Trump tariff threat



By Stephen Murphy, Ireland correspondent


Ireland is also seeing the return of a head of government for a second term. Micheal Martin, the leader of Fianna Fail, will today be elected to the office of taoiseach, which he previously held from 2020-2022.


After he appoints his new cabinet, which will meet this evening, it will be Martin's task to steer the Irish economy through the threat posed by Trump's policies.


Any sweeping tariffs would threaten Irish exports to the US, which surged 30% last year. There was a trade surplus with the US of a record $46bn to October, second in the EU only to Germany's surplus. There's no doubt Trump has this in his sights. 


His pick for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, has already taken aim at Ireland, posting last year that it was "nonsense that Ireland of all places runs a trade surplus at our expense".


There was relief in Dublin that Trump did not immediately announce tariffs this week, instead directing Lutnick to carry out a review.


Micheal Martin

Micheal Martin

PA


But the new administration also wants to lower corporation tax rates to match Ireland's, currently at 15%, to entice US multinationals to pay more tax at home, rather than at their Dublin HQs. Ireland's tax take is hugely dependent on the multinationals, and there is deep unease in political and economic circles.


But the relationship is also a two-way street. Ireland is the seventh-biggest source of investment in the US, with around 500 Irish companies employing more than 100,000 people in America, investing more than China or Canada.


Trump's transactional nature can be an advantage as well as a threat, and Irish diplomatic efforts will draw his attention to the flow of capital from east to west across the Atlantic too.


A former government adviser told me this week that it will unleash a "Brexit-style" offensive of soft power from the Irish. 


But there's still deep unease in Dublin, and no knowing if such a campaign will produce a similarly successful outcome for the protection of Irish interests. 

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